I saved these predictions in a file on my computer on March 17, 2009. Here they are (this would be a lot more fun if he was still around):
1. Inflation will climb quickly. By the end of 2010, inflation will be approaching doubles digits, if not well into double digits.
2. Interest rates will rise. By the middle of 2011, rates will be in the 8-9% range, at least. Higher is a possibility.
3. Unemployment will rise. Expect national unemployment to approach double digits by the end of 2011.
4. Welfare spending will nearly double
5. New housing will slow to a crawl.
6. The deficit will soar to unprecedented levels.
7. Consumer savings will fall.
8. Consumer spending will fall.
9. Foreign investors will begin buying up American assets at an alarming rate.
Let's have a look, shall we?
#1 Inflation declined in 2009 and in the three years of Obama's first term, averaged 1.49%, a significant decline from the 3.33% average during Bush's second term.
#2 Interest rates are at historic lows.
#3 Unemployment is on the decline. Considering the rate at which we were losing jobs at the end of the Bush administration, this really wasn't much of a "prediction", however I predict that by the time November rolls around, the unemployment rate will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 7.5%
#4 Welfare spending peaked at $502 billion in 2010 and has been declining ever since.
#5 New housing starts peaked in Aug. '05 and suffered a STEEP decline into Feb '09. They have been steadily increasing since then.
#6 The Bush deficit was $1.413T (FY 2009), the current deficit is $1.101T (FY2012)
#7 Personal savings rates rose sharply during the Obama administration, however have dipped as of late. Still, overall, the personal savings rate is higher today than it was three years ago.
#8 Consumer spending has been flat, however it is still higher today than it was when Obama took office.
#9 Not to sure how to quantify this. Foreign investment in the U.S.peaked at $328b in 2008. In 2010 it was $194b. To be honest, I'm not really sure what Sam had in mind with this prediction.
So there you have it. Nine doom and gloom predictions made 3 years ago, none of which materialized.